Black Swan Causal Labs
Notes from Black Swan Causal Labs

Writing.

On causal reasoning, AI in research,
and the craft of building better evidence.

An open wooden toolbox beside the water
Featured essay / AI in research

The next useful AI application in our field may start with someone who knows the problem. That someone could be you.

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All writing

04 essays / Newest first
AI in research

Is Prompt Engineering Dead?

Four prompting strategies, two model families, one research task. What changes when models interpret more of your intent?

Agent design

AI Agents and Idiot Sandwiches

What a kitchen brigade can teach us about dividing work, preserving context, and building AI systems for research.